Mining News #4

In this fourth edition of Mining News (in French), we round up the latest mining news: a mining bill in New York, the Elrond crash, rumours about the RTX 4000 series, GPU mining profitability, the "mine or buy?" question, Helium and the proposed new algorithm for Ethereum Classic.

Video from June 2022: the figures below date from that time. See "What about today?" at the end of the article.

Mining bill in New York and the Elrond crash

A New York State bill, seen as anti-crypto, aims to limit mining powered by fossil fuels, with a two-year moratorium to study the issue. Its author made it clear that it is neither a Bitcoin ban nor a ban on cryptocurrency mining, which is rather reassuring.

After the collapse of Terra Luna, it was the Elrond blockchain's turn: around 5 June, its EGLD token fell 93% on some exchanges, down to 5 dollars. Trading was halted there: it was apparently some kind of attack or flaw, with massive selling. The team reacted very quickly, and on CoinMarketCap EGLD had stayed at around €60. We have invested a little in the project ourselves and consider it very interesting.

Graphics cards: RTX 4000 rumours and Intel cards

According to the rumours, NVIDIA's RTX 4000 generation would keep the same numbering, with staggered releases:

• RTX 4090: in August, 24 GB of memory like the RTX 3090, and a TDP closer to 450 W (rumours had mentioned 600 W), which is still huge;
• RTX 4080: in September, 16 GB of memory versus 12 GB today;
• RTX 4070: in October, probably with 12 GB (not yet confirmed).

Intel's A300, A500 and A700 series cards still had no release date, and their performance did not look exceptional, even at the high end.

GPU mining profitability: watch the difficulty

Measured in dollars, Ethereum mining profitability was very low in the middle of a bearish phase: for a new rig, the payback time was approaching two years, even though card prices had fallen sharply. We recommend calculating it differently: look at how many coins you accumulate per month with your hashrate, deduct electricity, then multiply by the price at which you plan to sell. If you bet on Ethereum at €3,000 or even €4,000 (it had already gone above €4,000), you are thinking long term.

For the same hashrate, the number of coins you accumulate depends on the mining difficulty:

• Ethereum: the difficulty had doubled in a year, but its rise is not exponential;
• Flux: the difficulty had been falling for a while (around 24), so you accumulate quite a few coins;
• Ergo: 1.8 P versus around 4 P in August–September 2021, i.e. twice as much Ergo mined;
• Ravencoin: 37 K, two to three times lower than between August and January. You accumulate more Ravencoin than in 2021: less profitable if you sell straight away, interesting if you wait for the price to recover;
• Ethereum Classic: around 300 TH after a peak of 360 TH in March–April, i.e. as much ETC mined as a year earlier.

Mine or buy crypto?

We present a simulation by one of our favourite YouTubers, comparing what you earn after two years, with Ethereum at $1,700:

• Buying: $600 of crypto, i.e. 0.34 ETH. If the price doubles, the gain equals the stake, i.e. $600;
• Mining: a graphics card bought for $700 mines 0.25 ETH in one year, less than the 0.34 ETH bought, but 0.5 ETH in two years. Selling the card for around $250, the gain reaches $1,200.

Over two years, you therefore earn twice as much by mining. A day trader will see things differently, but this is the scenario for anyone who wants to invest over two years.

Helium: a change that penalises LoRaWAN hotspots

Helium is a kind of mining with devices (hotspots) that communicate over long distances using LoRaWAN radio. The network voted to open up to devices using Wi-Fi, a VPN or 4G and 5G, which could become the majority. Classic LoRaWAN hotspots risk seeing their earnings melt away, while Helium's profitability was already nothing exceptional. Our advice: if you have pre-ordered Helium LoRaWAN hotspots, try to cancel the order or get a refund.

Ethereum Classic: the anti-ASIC algorithm change on hold

Since 2020, Ethereum Classic has been considering a change of algorithm so that it can no longer be mined with ASICs, as articles from 2Miners and NiceHash announced. The reason: a 51% attack, in which large miners had taken control of the blockchain. The aim was to decentralise mining by allowing small miners to mine with cards of only 3 or 4 GB.

But 18 days before the video, the proposal was withdrawn while they wait to see how things develop. ETC can therefore still be mined with ASICs. Yet when Ethereum's Merge happens, many ASICs, and perhaps many GPU miners, will switch to Ethereum Classic: changes are coming, perhaps with opportunities for graphics card miners.

What about today?

Ethereum moved to proof of stake on 15 September 2022 (the Merge): mining Ethereum with graphics cards came to an end and GPU mining income collapsed. The profitability figures in this video are therefore out of date. In 2023, Kaspa ASICs also made Kaspa GPU mining marginal.

To look back at the options GPU miners had before the Merge, read our article What to do after Ethereum's move to Proof-of-Stake?. To mine today, browse our ASIC miners and estimate your earnings with our Bitcoin mining profitability calculator. All our guides are also on our tutorials page.

This article summarises the content of the video and is not investment advice.